Florida Insurance Hearings: Not Every Company is Losing Money

We noted in our continuing coverage of the Florida Senate Hearings concerning their property insurance mess that Allstate used unapproved short term weather models to make actuary decisions on the purchase of reinsurance. Those poor business decisions have caused losses for Allstate's Florida operating company, losses they now wish to dump on Florida consumers.

Allstate has since been joined by Nationwide and Farm Bureau in admitting the use of unapproved short term models to drive reinsurance purchase decisions. Farm Bureau also admitted losses deriving from that fact.

In a refreshing change, we have a story from the Miami Herald that Florida based American Strategic Insurance testified Tuesday they used approved long term models and have profited from the better decisions that resulted from that fact.

American Strategic, a St. Petersburg company that managed to cut rates an average 11.5 percent due to the money it saved by buying a portion of its reinsurance from the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund.

The company also lowered rates another 9.5 percent later in the year, mostly because it paid a lower cost for additional reinsurance bought in the private market and had fewer claims and better cost controls.

''Generally speaking, apples to apples, reinsurance costs were coming down for everyone in 2007,'' said CEO John Auer, who expects to see another drop this year.

Unlike many insurers, American Strategic said it is writing new homeowners policies, even some on the coast. The company has 260,000 policies, making it the third-largest insurer behind state-run Citizens and State Farm.

Sen. J.D. Alexander, R-Winter Haven, questioned American Strategic's heavy use of reinsurance to cover potential losses. He asked if it would be in financial trouble if its reinsurers, especially the state catastrophe fund, couldn't make good on their
policies.

Auer said the company, started 10 years ago, has already lived through highs and lows in the reinsurance market, noting that reinsurers are pleased with American Strategic's management. And A.M. Best raised American Strategic's rating to A-minus from B++ last December.

As I opined on the Allstate Yahoo Finance Message Board, the testimony of Allstate, Hartford, Farm Bureau and Nationwide Insurance reminded me of the confessions of an accomplished three card monte dealer. They expect their customers to foot their mistakes; both the mistaken decision to purchase more reinsurance and the decision to buy expensive reinsurance at all for that matter, rather than the cheaper variety offered by the State of Florida. Is insurance the only line of business that doesn't have to pay for their business mistakes? In the small business world where I come from there is no government backstop save bankruptcy so the concept of profit entitlement is foreign to me.

In any other line of business the shareholders, not the public would be eating these business mistakes. So while we congratulate American Strategic and their owners for their ability to profit while their competitors languish we also hope free market principles apply equally to those who make bad business decisions.

Simply put there is a point where the insurance industry needs to take ownership of their mistakes. The mess in Florida illustrates exactly why so few present day insurers would survive in a truly competitive marketplace without that anti-trust exemption they currently enjoy. Our position is that the free marketplace should reign supreme where ever possible and the culture of big insurance profit entitlement should end.

Finally the events in Florida now have me wondering if our state regulators here in Mississippi have been hoodwinked by similar tactics. Our wind pool premiums are in the stratosphere, largely due to the astronomical cost of reinsurance. Given what we have learned through the application of Sunshine to the insurance industry by the Sunshine State, I challenge Mr. Chaney to hold rate hearings for any increases in property insurance, not just those he arbitrarily deems too high. We have quickly arrived at the point where he should put the interests of the citizens of this state ahead of the profit interests of these out of state insurance companies.

sop

Breaking news: Another Massive Reinsurance Failure

Well folks, the crooks in Gucci suits have outdone themselves this time. Out of the blue here comes another ENRON type scam and business failure

Reinsurers with MBIA ties to record Q4 charges
Wed Jan 16, 2008 8:43pm EST

By Lilla Zuill

NEW YORK, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Bermuda reinsurers RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd (RNR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and PartnerRe Ltd (PRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday they will write off 3-year-old investments in Channel Re, a reinsurer formed solely to do business with MBIA Inc (MBI.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest bond insurer.

The announcement comes after Channel Re notified the companies that fourth-quarter losses stemming from its business with MBIA are expected to exceed its shareholders equity.

RenRe said its investment in Channel Re carried a value of $126.7 million at the end of September. PartnerRe said it would take a $74 million fourth-quarter charge, equal to about $1.31 per share, to write down its investment.

Reinsurers effectively insure other insurers, spreading the risk of losses among more than one party.

Channel Re expects $200 million in credit impairments from a $3.3 billion mark-to-market charge at MBIA, according to Partner Re's statement.

David Lilly, an outside spokesman for RenRe, declined to comment further on the Channel Re development. PartnerRe could not immediately be reached for comment.

Rising defaults in mortgage-related bonds have threatened to wipe out a significant amount of capital for bond insurers such as MBIA, putting ratings under threat of downgrade.

Last month MBIA took steps to shore up capital, securing up to $1 billion from private equity firm Warburg Pincus, and last week sold $1 billion of surplus notes.

Investors appear to still have doubts; MBIA shares fell 16.5 percent to $13.40 on Wednesday.

OFFSHORE PROTECTION

Channel Re was jointly formed in Bermuda in 2004 by MBIA, RenRe, PartnerRe and Koch Financial to do business exclusively with MBIA, which held a 17 percent stake. RenaissanceRe was the largest owner with about 33 percent, Koch owned roughly 30 percent and Partner Re, 20 percent.

Channel Re had a triple-A rating, with a stable outlook, from McGraw-Hill Co's (MHP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) rating firm Standard & Poor's.

Bermuda, an offshore reinsurance center, is home to more than 1,500 insurers and about half a dozen bond reinsurers, including another that counted MBIA as a large customer, Ram Reinsurance Holdings (RAMR.O: Quote, Profile, Research).

Separately, RenaissanceRe said it will also take a $55 million charge in the fourth quarter to increase its incurred, but not realized, reserves for subprime-related exposures in its casualty clash reinsurance business.

RenRe said it expects to post a profit in the fourth quarter and for the full year despite the charges. It is due to report quarterly earnings on Feb. 5.

How's the Weather - Model?

Today we begin with the weather forecast but not just any weather forecast mind you. First off is this story from Reuters which proclaims our property and casualty insurance rates in the US will remain high due to the massive hurricane that is surely coming to destroy us all. As a result, the article concludes our P&C rates will continue to increase. So proclaims the popular press which by the way has never met a scientific story on global warming and Hurricanes they failed to butcher.

So what's so complicated about the long range weather forecast? Easy, these high priced models that are periodically publicly released (and butchered) aren't really worth the paper Reuters wrote the story upon:

"One big problem is that catastrophe models are not reliable predictors of when or where a monster hurricane is going to strike, according to Karen Clark, vice chair of AIR Worldwide, one of the leading modeling firms.

“A model is just that—a model. It is still based on many simplifying assumptions, with a high degree of uncertainty,” she said. “It can tell you, given where you have your insureds, what the maximum probable loss would be should a storm of a certain strength hit a certain area, but the question of frequency is more vexing.”

However, she noted that “while there is no consensus at all on climate change and the frequency of hurricane landfalls, most scientists agree that when storms do hit these days, their intensity is likely to be greater and will cause more damage.”

So here, in the National P&C Underwriter, an insurance industry trade publication, we discover a deeper truth about these climate models and as borne out by the last two Hurricane seasons which have also come complete with prediction of coastal doom; namely that weather models are notoriously unreliable predictors of when or where a windstorm may strike.

This basic fact does not stop insurers, especially those in reinsurance from paying big bucks for weather forecasting as most have their own in house forecasting units like this one. We submit that despite the limitations of weather modeling there has to be good reason the insurance industry keeps such a close eye on the weather. However, insurance seems to be one business that profits handily even when they completely miss on the extended forecast like these past two years.

Sop